=== DeepPick two-stage holdout ===
matches=4552 rows=4011 train=3521 test=490 holdout>=2026

- Two-stage: process HGB (shots/fouls/corners) → NegBin prior + iso/HGB markets.
- Read-only OverPick tables; independent of OverPick tips.

market         policy              n  base  tips   hit%  cov%  meanP     gap   brier
goals_o25      hybrid_and@0.60   490 60.4%    94  70.2% 19.2%  0.767 +0.065  0.2390
goals_o25      hybrid_avg@0.60   490 60.4%   155  68.4% 31.6%  0.693 +0.010  0.2390
corners_o85    hybrid_and@0.60   490 61.4%   277  62.1% 56.5%  0.811 +0.190  0.2788
corners_o85    hybrid_avg@0.60   490 61.4%   332  61.4% 67.8%  0.763 +0.148  0.2788
corners_o95    hybrid_and@0.60   490 49.6%   175  48.6% 35.7%  0.771 +0.285  0.2989
corners_o95    hybrid_avg@0.60   490 49.6%   190  50.0% 38.8%  0.737 +0.237  0.2989
yellows_o35    hybrid_and@0.60   490 49.4%    76  69.7% 15.5%  0.734 +0.037  0.2406
yellows_o35    hybrid_avg@0.60   490 49.4%   106  64.2% 21.6%  0.677 +0.036  0.2406
fouls_o22      hybrid_and@0.60   490 50.8%   130  64.6% 26.5%  0.801 +0.155  0.2640
fouls_o22      hybrid_avg@0.60   490 50.8%   148  63.5% 30.2%  0.752 +0.116  0.2640